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Hot money inflows may ignite stock market
· Source: Global Times
· [08:15 November 04 2010]
· Comments
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By Wang Xinyuan
As the US Fed decides how much money will spend to help jump start economic growth at home, the impact of that decision on China is forecast to create a new wave of hot money flowing into the nation's equity markets, economists said at a forum in Beijing Wednesday.
"The second round of quantitative easing of the monetary policy in the US will pump more hot money into emerging countries, including China, that is seeking higher returns," Guo Tianyong, a finance professor with the Central University of Finance and Economics.
Quantitative easing involves increasing the money supply by printing more money.
It can also include buying government bonds to reduce long- term interest rates and encouraging private banks to lend more.
Equity markets were expecting the US Federal Reserve to outline its monetary easing plans during Wednesday's scheduled meeting.
The Shanghai stock market has leapt about 15 percent since end of September, fueled by a price hike in commodities and energy stocks such as coal and non-ferrous metals.
Since most commodities are priced internationally in US dollars, the depreciation of the US currency will push commodity prices higher.
Hot money is regularly channeled into two major investment instruments in China, real estate and the stock market.
With the country's tightening measures over the real estate sector having cooled down residential speculation since April, large sums of hot money has shifted from the property sector and into the stock market, said Zhao Xiao, professor with University of Science and Technology Beijing.
Hot money inflows started to pick up in September as demonstrated by the increased amount of yuan used in foreign currency transactions, which rose 19.19 percent month on month to 289.6 billion yuan ($43.34 billion), a new high since January.
With the expected inflow of hot money, there is still room for the stock market index to go up as the Chinese economy enters into a cycle of new growth next year, University of Science and Technology's Zhao said.
Currently the stock market doesn't reflect economic fundamentals, said Teng Tai, chief economist with Minsheng Securities.
Despite China's fast GDP growth of 10.6 percent in the first nine months, the Shanghai composite ended slightly down at 3030.99 points at market close Wednesday.

Cảnh báo dòng tiền nóng!

Be vigilant on huge hot money inflows, outflows to emerging economies


Cảnh giác dòng tiền nóng ùn ùn đổ vào các nền kinh tế mới nổi
15:47, November 05, 2010 0 1 0">2 1 2">3 21600 pixelWidth">3 21600 pixelHeight">0 0 1">6 1 2">7 21600 pixelWidth">8 21600 0">7 21600 pixelHeight">
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Of late, there have been huge inflows of hot money into new, emerging economies, and particularly into Asia emerging economies, due to the global imbalance of economic recovery and the anticipated devaluation of the U.S. dollar. The IMF and the World Bank warn that the influx of hot money could cause currency rallies and asset bubbles. For this reason, Asian countries and regions should keep a close watch on possible risks set off by the inflows and outflows of hot money to the region.

Global capital flows was at a very low ebb during the recent world financial crisis. However, international capital has flooded into emerging economies since early this year. According to the International Finance Statistics (IFS), the IMF's principal statistical publication covering numerous topics of international and domestic finance, the emerging market equity funds saw an inflow of more than 47 billion dollars from January to early October this year; the emerging bond market funds reached an inflow of 57 billion dollars during the same period, as against an inflow of 41.9 billion dollars for the whole of 2007 and and an inflow of 46.2 billion dollars in 2009.

In the current round of surging capital inflows, Asian emerging economies are undoubtedly the most important destination. A total inflow of 11.5 billion dollars have flooded into the equity markets of India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Philippines, China's Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam in third quarter this year and equity prices in these areas has risen anywhere from eight percent to 23 percent. And the exchange rates of the ROK won, Philippine peso and Thai baht against the US dollar went up more than five percent, the Malaysian ringgit appreciated by over four percent, and the currencies of India, Indonesia and a few other countries also showed a trend for appreciation.

Overall, Asia has become a major destination of hot money inflows, and this is owed chiefly to three main factors. First, the global economic recovery is imbalanced. To date, the economic performance of the United States, Europe, Japan and other developed nations is frail or unhealthy, and the levels of interest rates in these nations have keep at the historic lows for a long time. And Asian emerging economies, nevertheless, is alive with a strong domestic demand, a fiscal stability and higher real return rates, and so they are attracting influxes of hot money.

Second, the devaluation of the US dollar is anticipated. As the Federal Reserve is to restart large-scale assets purchase plan, the continued depreciation of the dollar is widely expected.

Third, there is a regulatory arbitrage factor. The U.S. and EU unveiled their respective framework for financial regulatory reforms in July and October, which called for an enhanced management of hedge funds and derivatives trading. Asia has become an ideal arbitrage place for huge international hedge funds and pension funds as its financial regulatory standards may be relatively eased. So, the inflows of hedge funds to Asia from the U.S. and Britain have hastened.

Although capital inflows to Asia can spur investment and economic growth, the resulting equity prices and currency appreciation, however, can lead to asset bubbles and inflation, posing stark challenges for the monetary policy management of the relevant countries and the balance of payments and financial stability.

What particularly worthy of attention here is that hot money is extremely unstable. Once the economic recovery situation improves in developed economies and the US dollar starts to appreciate as its devaluation bottoms out, hot money would whooshed out of emerging economies with a reversal of capital flows, and finance turbulences are very likely to occur in some economically vulnerable nations. And the countries and regions should keep vigilant to guard against it.

First, it is essential to strengthen macroeconomic management through more prudent macroeconomic control measures, such as adjusting the interest rates and deposit reserve ratios and adopting other fiscal, monetary policies, in an effort to keep financial stability, the balance of international payments and financial stability, and to improve their capability to resist risks.

Second, efforts should be to guide capital into real economy entities, particularly into infrastructure projects or overseas investment or to standardize the orderly capital flow via taxation, exchange rates and industrial policies and, thirdly, to step up the mutual investment and intra-regional mutual investment and cooperation, so as to promote the in-depth growth of Asian financial market and to broaden the channels for the use of capital and,

Finally, strenuous efforts should be taken to use varied mechanisms for international multilateral coordination to step up dialogues and jointly to tackle such thorny problems as the imbalance of economic recovery and the imbalance of international trade and the exchange rate issue.

In the current round of surging capital inflows, Asian emerging economies are undoubtedly the most important destination.

Không nghi ngờ gì nữa, các nền kinh tế mới nổi châu Á là đích đến quan trọng nhất của dòng vốn nóng hiên nay!

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