Báo cáo Merrill Lynch: thời của cổ phiếu Than!

Báo cáo Merrill Lynch: thời của cổ phiếu Than!

Multi-year bull market for thermal coal emerging
Availability of thermal coal looks set to become exceedingly tight, as China became a net importer in March and Indonesia is pressing ahead with an ambitious power expansion plan

Coal?Ts brightly burning fire

We like sectors with strong demand and tight inventories ?" they ultimately enjoy pricing power and improved profitability as a result. Thermal coal is one of those sectors that meet both the criteria. Its price also benefits from inadequate railway
and port congestion.

At the McCloskey coal conference - held in New York in late June ?" speakers agreed prices for thermal coal have further upside through to end-2008, a view also expressed by Merrill Lynch analyst David Lipschitz in his June 28 report.

Thermal coal is already in tight supply. We expect coal prices to stay high for three reasons:

1. Strong demand growth from new power plants in India and China.
Chinâ?Ts installed power capacity will double by 2015 (up 677GW to 1,119GW), while acute shortages in India have left cities such as New Delhi and Kolkata without power for many hours in the day (in Kolkata, for example, 2mn people now live without power for up to eight hours a day, worse than the two or three hours per day in previous years).

The Indian government has made infrastructure spending a top priority. In addressing the power shortages, the government plans to add more than 78,500MW of new power generation capacity by 2012 (versus current capacity of 85,000MW).

These capacity additions are huge, and will have a profound impact on the demand for thermal coal and other fuels. To put it in perspective, if as little as 10,000MW of capacity in Indonesia equals 25% of its exports, or 45mt of annual demand, then it is difficult to see how global thermal coal markets can match expectations for demand of Chinâ?Ts 678GW.

2. Another positive factor is the closure of small mines in China, for environmental and safety reasons.
Approximately 10,000 small mines were shut in 2005-06, accounting for 300mt of capacity. The closure of these smaller mines has lead China to become a net importer of coal in March this year, as the chart alongside shows.

3. Inadequate infrastructure due to:

a) Sixty percent of Chinâ?Ts coal is moved by rail, and railway
bottlenecks exist moving the coal from mines in the northeast to
the power plants in the southeast. Chinâ?Ts Railways Ministry
economist said in March ?oour railroad service can only meet
35% of cargo demand?.

The 11th 5-year Development Plan seeks to increase railways
transportation by a CAGR of 7% per year, but as this is in line
with growth in the last plan, it is questionable whether it
adequately addresses the shortage of freight trains.

b) Port congestion. The port congestion at the world?Ts largest
coal-exporting port - Newcastle, NSW, Australia ?" has eased.
But in fact there are still 60 dry bulk vessels waiting offshore,
from 70 a month ago. This is equal to roughly 10% of the global
fleet, and one of the reasons the Baltic Dry Index has risen.

Indonesia could lead to further coal shortages

Since it overtook Australia in 2005, Indonesia has become the world?Ts largest exporter of thermal coal, and the key incremental supplier to North Asia. However its lead position is under threat from its own rapidly expanding power sector.

Power shortages and black-outs are frequent across Java, Bali and Sumatra. State electric utility PLN says the power shortages result from a lack of new investment in power plants between the period of 2000 and 2005.

To meet demand, Indonesia will need an additional 10,000MW until 2009. Failing this, the country will face a serious power crisis. The government has taken a number of steps, including an emergency program to provide an additional supply the requisite 10,000 MW until 2009, of which 8,000 MW will be produced by four unnamed Chinese companies using coal-fired power plants in Java and Sumatra.

These plants will absorb an additional 45mt of thermal coal per year, which otherwise would have been destined for offshore markets. That equates to around 25% of Indonesiâ?Ts current thermal coal export.


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Cũng trong cái báo cáo mà ML khuyến cáo giảm 'ầu tỈ vào VN, nó cũng nói t>i vi?c giá than Y châu Á sẽ tfng mạnh thời gian t>i do Trung Qu'c, Ấn ĐT, Indo 'ều 'ẩy mạnh xây dựng nhà máy nhi?t 'i?n nhằm 'áp ứng nhu cầu tiêu thụ 'i?n khủng khiếp của họ. Điều này khiến Trung Qu'c từ 1 nỈ>c xuất khẩu than 'ã chính thức trY thành mTt nỈ>c nhập khẩu, Ấn 'T, Indo cũng sẽ s>m theo gót...
Túm lại là than sẽ 'ắt lên nhiều thời gian t>i, Y VN giá than trong nỈ>c cũng 'ang chuyfn dần sang cỈ chế giá th