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Stocks, Commodities Retreat on Jobs; Euro Falls Below $1.20

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By Rita Nazareth and Kelly Bit




June 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. and European stocks and commodities slid, while Treasuries rallied, as lower-than- estimated American job growth and a worsening government debt crisis fueled concern the global economic recovery will slow. Hungary’s currency, equities and bonds plummeted.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 2.2 percent at 11:37 a.m. in New York, erasing its weekly gain, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 1.8 percent. Oil fell 3.1 percent, while copper, nickel and tin sank at least 2.5 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields decreased 15 basis points to 3.21 percent. The euro slid below $1.20 for the first time since March 2006 and the yen strengthened against 16 major counterparts. The forint tumbled to a 14-month low on concern Hungary may default.
“Investors should keep their seat belts on and tight,” Mohamed El-Erian, who oversees $1.1 trillion as chief executive officer at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an e-mail interview. “Today’s numbers suggest that the corporate sector as a whole cannot rely on strong-top-line revenue growth to drive profitability.”
The jobs report pared gains from the first two-day advance in the S&P 500 since April as the lower-than-forecast 41,000 increase in private payrolls undermined confidence in the recovery. The euro slumped amid concern the debt crisis will worsen after a spokesman for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said his nation’s economy is in a “very grave situation” and press reports fueled speculation of trading losses at French bank Societe Generale SA.
Payrolls Data
Payrolls rose by 431,000 last month, including a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 census, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. Economists projected a 536,000 gain, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday raised its prediction to 600,000.
“If the worker is not going back to work, then the question becomes whether earnings estimates for the second half of this year are too high, and if they are too high, is the market priced appropriately?” said Stephen Wood, who helps manage $176 billion as chief market strategist for Russell Investments in New York. “There’s a tug of war between a sloppy economic recovery and some very negative headline news. The rest of 2010 is going to be choppier.”
General Electric Co., Boeing Co. and Caterpillar Inc. slumped at least 3.5 percent to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 222.26 points, or 2.2 percent, to 10,033.02. The S&P 500 has tumbled 12 percent from a 19-month high in April as Europe’s debt crisis and concern growth will slow in China overshadowed improving data on the American economy.
Earnings Watch
Profits for companies in the S&P 500 are forecast to rise 17 percent to a combined $81.34 a share in 2010, according to estimates from more than 2,000 analysts tracked by Bloomberg. That implies a price-earnings ratio of about 13.3, compared with an average multiple of 20.4 over the previous two decades, data show.
Forecasts for the U.S. economy to expand 3.2 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2011 incorporate estimates that the jobless rate will decline to 9.6 percent by the end of 2010 and 9 percent a year later.
“Stock valuations are low and on the back of this report we might conclude that they should be justifiably more low,” said Barry Knapp, the head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays Plc. “We should be adding 250,000-300,000 jobs a month and we’re not doing that. I don’t think any strategists are about to adjust their earnings estimates because of this but forward estimates are probably too high as we get into 2011.”
Treasuries Gain
Treasuries headed for a weekly gain on revived demand for the relative safety of government debt. The 30-year Treasury yield decreased 10 basis points to 4.17 percent.
Hungary’s benchmark BUX Index fell 3.3 percent in Budapest today. The equity gauge earlier tumbled as much as 8.4 percent. The forint slumped against all 17 major counterparts tracked by Bloomberg, led by a loss of 3.2 percent against the yen.
Hungary’s 10-year bond yield jumped 69 basis points to 8.08 percent, the highest since September while still down from 12.5 percent in March 2009.
Credit-default swaps on sovereign bonds surged to a record.
The cost of insuring against losses on Hungarian sovereign debt rose 63 basis points to 371, according to CMA DataVision at 3:30 p.m. in London, after earlier reaching 416 basis points. Swaps on France, Austria, Belgium and Germany also rose, sending the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of contracts on 15 governments as high as a record 174.4 basis points.
The Stoxx 600 fell for the first time in five days. Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest lender, fell 5.8 percent in Madrid.
Societe Generale Slumps
Societe Generale slumped 7.8 percent in Paris. France’s second-biggest bank by market value is telling analysts that it didn’t suffer losses on derivatives, said two people familiar with the matter who declined to be identified.
Societe Generale declined to comment on Reuters and CNBC reports today that cited speculation the bank may face derivatives losses. “If we had something to say, we would have already communicated,” said Laura Schalk, a spokeswoman for the Paris-based bank.
The MSCI World Index of stocks in 24 developed nations fell 1.9 percent, the most in two weeks. Most shares in Asia fell before the U.S. jobs data, sending the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.2 percent. Mining companies declined in Asia after the world’s two largest copper producers, Codelco and Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., said China’s plans to curb growth will lower demand for the metal. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. fell 1.1 percent after Shanghai Securities News said the company will cut prices. Hynix Semiconductor Inc. rallied 6 percent in Seoul on a credit-rating upgrade and higher memory-chip prices.
Copper slumped for a fifth day in New York, heading for the longest slump since December. The metal slid 3.6 percent to $2.8410 a pound.

INDEXVALUECHANGE%CHANGETIME
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG10,047.83-207.45-2.02%11:51
S&P 500 INDEX1,081.78-21.05-1.91%11:51
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX2,263.41-39.62-1.72%11:51
S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX11,699.49-112.38-0.95%11:51
MEXICO IPC INDEX31,103.36-228.50-0.73%11:31
BRAZIL BOVESPA INDEX62,075.01-867.90-1.38%11:51

Tuần sau VNi tăng bất chấp DJ tối nay giảm bao nhiêu điểm

Lên tàu, hay về quê thứ 2 em mới biết bác à.

Nhưng theo các bác nên làm thế nào?

Tình hình kinh tế ở Hungary là ổn định , nhận định về tình hình nợ hôm 4/6 là ko phù hợp, là sai lạc( bloomberg )


1. Chính phủ Hung đã chính thứuc đính chính lại phát ngôn hôm 4/6 vừa qua:

" Tình hình kinh tế là ổn định, comment hôm 4/6 vừa qua về nợ là không phù hợp, là sai lạc ( misleading)"

2. Giám đôc IMF rất "ngạc nhiên" về comment tuần trước của CP mới .Ủy viên hội đồng kinh tế và tiền tệ EU Olli Rehn cho biết Hung đã có các tiến bộ vượt bậc. Giải thiết về tình trạng nợ của Hung là sai lạc

3. Khả năng chi trả nợ của Hung là "không phải bàn cãi". Bộ truởng ngoại giao Hung nói

4. EU và IMF khen ngơi CP Hung đã giảm thâm hụt ngân sách từ 9,3% năm 2006 xuống 4% trong năm ngoái

5. Hung sẽ không là một Hy lạp thứ 2. Thâm hụt ngân sách năm nay của Hung chỉ là 4,1% GDP so với trung bình của Châu Âu là 6,3% và của Hy lạp là 9,3%. Nợ công là 79% so với trung bình của EU là 83% và Hy lạp là 125%.

Kiểu này dễ tối thứ 2 Âu , Mỹ lại xanh lắm. Bán sàn thứ 2 thứ 3 lại tiêc ngẩn ngơ
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Hungary Cools Default Talk, Commits to Budget Goal (Update2)

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s economic situation is stable and recent comments about a possible default were “unfortunate,” the government said, pledging to stick to the budget deficit goal approved by the country’s creditors.
“Any comparison with countries that have much higher credit default swap ratings than Hungary is unfortunate,” State Secretary Mihaly Varga told reporters today in Budapest. “The comments that have been made about this issue are exaggerated and if they come from colleagues that’s unfortunate.”
Comments from Hungarian officials over the previous two days sparked concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis may be spreading to eastern Europe. That helped weaken the euro, pushed Hungary’s currency to a 12-month low and borrowing costs rose the most since October 2008, when the country needed an international bailout to avert a default.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who took power a week ago, sought permission for a wider budget deficit from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, which led the 20 billion-euro ($24 billion) bailout for Hungary. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso this week rebuffed Orban, urging him to continue fiscal consolidation....


‘Pretty Big Change’
The government will aim to meet the deficit target of 3.8 percent of gross domestic product, which is “attainable” through changes to spending and revenue plans, Varga said today. Orban called a three-day emergency cabinet meeting to hammer out the action plan.
“It’s a pretty big change from one day to the next,” said Gyorgy Barcza, an economist at KBC Groep NV in Budapest, said in a phone interview. “It’s positive, but local assets may not recover quickly because the new government now has a credibility deficit it needs to overcome and that takes time.”
The Hungarian forint fell 4.8 percent against the euro the past two days, the worst performance among 177 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The extra yield investors demand to own Hungary’s debt over U.S. Treasuries yesterday rose 149 basis points, or 1.49 percentage point, to 468 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index.
EU and IMF leaders today praised the work of former Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai’s administration in reducing the budget deficit to 4 percent of GDP last year from 9.3 percent in 2006.
Serious Progress’
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said he was “surprised” by the Orban government’s comments earlier this week. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Hungary has made “serious progress” and suggestions of a possible default are “misleading.” Both spoke after a gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 nations in Busan, South Korea today.
Hungary’s ability to finance its debt “isn’t a question,” Varga said.
The issue is the size of the deficit, Varga said. The fact finding-committee found miscalculations “by orders of magnitude” in this year’s budget, he said, declining to give the size of the potential overrun.
Tax revenue will fall short of estimates and spending will exceed the plan in areas such as social security, at municipalities and transportation companies. Items including debt at state-run companies also boost the deficit, he said.
“If nothing is changed in the budget, the planned budget deficit target can’t be met,” he said. “There are a number of tricks in this budget. These numbers are not factual. The government of Gordon Bajnai lied to the country. It didn’t present the real situation in a credible, detailed manner.”
‘Slim Chance’
Varga, a founding member of Orban’s Fidesz party who served as finance minister in the premier’s previous administration, said he persuaded the prime minister to try to meet the deficit target. Varga, 45, also served as chairman of parliament’s budget committee from 2002 to 2010.
Lajos Kosa, another Fidesz founder and the party’s deputy chairman, said June 3 that Hungary had a “slim chance” to avoid a “Greek situation” and the government must focus on averting a default. Peter Szijjarto, Orban’s spokesman, yesterday said the comments weren’t exaggerated.
The politicians were “over-speaking,” said Kristin Lindow, a senior vice president with Moody’s Investors Service in London. Moody’s has a negative outlook on its Baa1 debt rating for Hungary, the third lowest investment grade. The rating was cut from A3 in March 2009.
‘Isn’t the Next Greece’
“Hungary isn’t the next Greece,” Lindow said yesterday in a phone interview. “Hungary has a good track record of doing what it needs to do when in trouble.”
The country’s deficit will widen to 4.1 percent of GDP this year, compared with an average of 6.3 percent in the EU and 9.3 percent in Greece, according to European Commission estimates. Government debt will increase to 79 percent of economic output, compared with an EU average of 84 percent and 125 percent in Greece, the forecasts show.
Szijjarto’s comments helped push the euro below $1.20 for the first time in four years yesterday. EU governments crafted a 750 billion-euro ($904 billion) financial backstop for the euro area last month after Greece’s widening deficit threatened to shatter confidence in the single currency.
Greece’s deficit is forecast at 9.3 percent of GDP this year, pushing government debt to 125 percent of output, according to the European Commission.
“Markets are still not going to be very happy,” said Peter Attard Montalto, an economist at Nomura International Plc in London, said by phone today. “The EU and the IMF will want them to return to ‘Bajnaism’ of consolidation first and growth second. They may have pushed the market too far trying to get away with growth first and budget second. Orban may well try to continue with that until the last possible moment.”

Vietnam’s Economic Growth to Accelerate, Premier Says (Update1)

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By Van Nguyen and Jason Folkmanis


June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam’s economic growth may accelerate this year, enabling the Southeast Asian country to attract investment from overseas as the global economy rebounds from the worst recession in more than six decades.
The country will grow between 6.5 percent and 7 percent this year, Prime Minister *************** said today at the World Economic Forum in Ho Chi Minh City. The economy expanded at a 5.3 percent pace last year.
“Vietnam has become an attractive and safe destination for international investors,” Dung said. “Foreign investment capital has constantly risen over the years in Vietnam and plays an important role in the economic success of the country.”
Economic growth may further gain momentum to between 7 percent and 8 percent from next year to 2020, Dung said. The global recovery from last year’s recession has boosted Asian exports and lifted economic growth from Thailand to Malaysia.
“After the strongest crisis since the Second World War, Asia has been surprisingly very stable and is bouncing back very fast,” said Frans Muller, a member of the management board of Germany’s Metro AG, the country’s largest retailer. He spoke at the same conference.
Earlier this month, Dung asked the central bank to implement measures to reduce interest rates and help the country achieve economic growth of 6.5 percent this year. The country has tried to bring down borrowing costs that climbed to as high as 20 percent this year after a link was severed between the central bank’s benchmark and commercial banks’ interest rates.
To contact the reporters on this story: Van Nguyen in Hanoi at [email protected] Jason Folkmanis in Ho Chi Minh City at [email protected] or
Last Updated: June 6, 2010 01:20 EDT

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