iaminblue: Tầm nhìn TTCK Việt Nam 6 tháng cuối năm 2010 - Dòng tiền cuộn chảy, sóng lớn hình thành..

Đại khái là tổng hợp ngắn gọn các yếu tố tác động như sau (để các bác có hình dung tổng thể):

Phần 1: Về chứng khoán:

1. VNINDEX từ đầu năm 2010 đến nay chỉ dao động trong dải 480-550 ko có xu hướng rõ rệt.

2. Ngân hàng Hồng Kông - Thượng Hải HSBC đánh giá cực kỳ lạc quan về triển vọng kinh tế Việt Nam. HSBC dự báo tăng trưởng GDP của Việt Nam năm 2010 là 7,2%, tuy nhiên P/E cổ phiếu hiện chỉ là 5-6x, và giá cổ phiếu là thấp do các NĐT bị ảnh hưởng bởi xu hướng đầu tư ngắn hạn mạnh mẽ gần đây.
Khuyến nghị mua đang được đưa ra mạnh mẽ ngay lbây giờ như sau:

Investors told to buy shares right now

Financial analysts believe that the stock market will prosper again in the time to come after businesses announce positive half-year business results, and the monetary policy is loosened.

On June 14, encouraged by the good macroeconomic performance, stock indexes increased slightly for the fifth consecutive trading session. The VN Index increased to 508.32 points, rising by 0.8 percent, HNX Index surged to 159.76 points, climbing by 0.97 percent over the previous trading session. The total trading volume was 2560 billion dong.

Good economic performance expected
At a recent workshop held in HCM City, the General Director of HSBC Vietnam predicted that Vietnam’s GDP growth rate in 2010 would reach 7.2 percent. This forecast seems to be reliable, because many have predicted high economic growth rates for their areas. Hanoi, for example, believes that its GDP growth rate will reach 10.1 percent for the first six months of 2010.

Enterprises have not released their business result for the first six months yet, but the 5-month business reports are satisfactory and analysts believe that many will have profits much higher than that of the same period of 2009.

Companies in the fields of construction materials, rubber, real estate, pharmacy and food all have good business strategies and high growth rates. However, the prices of their stocks remain low because investors have been influenced by the ups and downs in recent trading sessions. It is estimated that the P/E (price to earning ratio) is low at 5-6x only,

Interest rates will drop
Leaders of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) met representatives from Vietnam Banking Association and commercial banks late last week to discuss the Government’s instruction on lowering interest rates.

DBV Deputy Governor Nguyen Dong Tien affirmed that the central bank will take necessary measures to ease interest rates. Tien explained that reasonable interest rates now are 10 percent for deposits and 12 percent for loans. In order to do this, the central bank will apply flexible monetary policy tools *****pport banks in lowering interest rates

Financial analysts forecast that banks will lower their rates, but they need more time to use up the capital they mobilised at high interest rates.

Time to buy shares
Though the stock prices have been increasing over the last five trading sessions, liquidity remains low. Sellers do not want to bargain away their holdings, while buyers want to invest money step by step and buy shares gradually.
Huynh Anh Tuan, Director of SJC Securities Company, commented that the European debts crisis is over, while macroeconomic indexes are improving (low inflation rates, high GDP growth rate, stable monetary market, good business result of enterprises, decreasing bank interest rates). All these factors seem to support theories that conclude stock prices will rise. The analysts believe that, in July, when both businesses results for the first six months of 2010 are revealed and the monetary policy is loosened, the stock market will prosper again.

3. Dư nợ tín dụng đạt có 10,52%; vẫn còn 14,48% chỉ tiêu nữa. Đặc biệt tín dụng chứng khoán vẫn ở mức thấp (room tín dụng còn khoảng 50.000 tỷ):
http://cafef.vn/20100616100654870CA34/du-no-tin-dung-6-thang-uoc-tang-gan-1052.chn

4. Các tin xấu phần nào đã phản ánh hết, tâm lý NĐT bình ổn, khó xảy ra chuyện bán tháo hàng loạt.

5. Dragon Capital thoái 1 vốn tại STB, thường DC tuyên bố thoái vốn ở cổ phiếu nào thì sau đó cổ phiếu này sẽ tăng trưởng:
http://cafef.vn/20100616104810410CA31/dragon-capital-va-sacombank.chn

6. NHNN đang tìm giải pháp để giúp đỡ các tổ chức tín dụng niêm yết trên sàn, muốn vậy TTCK phải hấp dẫn để niêm yết thành công. Điển hình là vụ niêm yết MB sắp tới:

SBV seeks opinions on draft circular guiding credit institutions listing shares on stock market
State Bank of Vietnam has been seeking public opinions to complete the draft circular guiding credit institutions listing shares on the local stock market.
The first draft circular that has been announced offers a number of significant conditions.

Concerned over excess of control
On Vietnam's stock market, there now are six listed banks participating in HCM City Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX). These members have been present on the floors for 2-5 years. In addition, another case is Military Bank (MB) that has completed the basic legal procedures to get ready to join the games on the stock market.
For listing shares, of course, banks must receive the approval of the country's central bank. But in near future, if the above circular is issued, the legal conditions set out will be harder for small-sized banks.
Under the provisions of the Vietnamese Securities Law, the listing of public companies in general and of credit institutions in particular must be approved by the State Securities Commission on the basis of compliance with legal conditions. These conditions require the listing of public companies to maintain a stable governance structure and administration, and high mass in order to protect the interests of investors and contribute to the stability of the stock market.
But the explanation of the above mentioned circular drafting committee, unlike normal businesses, activities of credit institutions have high sensitivity, given that in addition to their equity capital; the operations of credit institutions are also formed from the mobilisation of capital in the population.
Accordingly, the drafting committee, said: "By participating in the listing of shares on the Stock Exchange, credit institutions must disclose detailed information, while this disclosure is always sensitive and it could adversely affect banks' activities".
In particular, another concern was highlighted in another explanation, saying, "When listing shares, trading mechanisms of shares of credit institutions are free to follow the supply-demand relationship on the market, which may reduce the stability of the shareholders structure, exceeding the control of the State Bank of Vietnam and credit institutions themselves. Therefore, the listing of shares of a credit institution, if any risk, this will not only negatively affect the institution itself, but also the safe operation of the entire banking system.
"With such arguments, the Drafting Committee said that in a bid to limit risks that may happen to listed credit institutions, thereby, limiting the negative impacts and collapse of the entire system of credit institutions, the SBV's consideration and approval to ensure that credit institutions, when listing shares, must have sufficient resilience to the market risks is essential.

Difficult for small banks
Before the above draft circular was sent out, a prominent question was raised that why UPCoM, a market for trading of shares of unlisted public companies, does not attract the participation of banks.

As per an answer mentioned much in 2009, it was due to legal barriers, related to the guidelines and approval by the SBV. In fact, a bank had to cancel listing plans on this floor because of the above difficulties to shift to listing on HOSE.
Now, some banks have also been promoting plans to list shares on HOSE or HNX. However, if the circular is issued, their plans will likely be "stuck" again.
Specifically, according to the draft circular, an important condition for banks to make stock listing is that the actual value of capital of credit institutions at the time of listing must meet the minimum legal capital.


Under the current regulations, the legal capital of commercial banks in 2010 must be at least three trillion dong. Currently, the SBV is pushing its bank members to ensure these requirements as its recent moves that will make "strong hand" with the case of a bank that does not meet the above regulations.

Meanwhile, according to the SBV, amongst banks that are promoting a listing plan, three of them are not sure of meeting the minimum legal capital requirements, even they only have chartered capital of between one trillion and two trillion dong.

In addition to the requirement on the minimum legal capital, the draft circular also made some other notable conditions, such as credit institutions that have profitable business activities in the two consecutive years and no accumulated losses by the time of the proposal to list; must ensure the minimum capital adequacy ratio of SBV at the time of the proposal to list; must ensure safe operations of banking activities according to SBV in the three consecutive months before the proposal to list and during the time that SBV considers the listing proposal; the rate of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the closest years and quarters during the time to consider the listing proposal is no more than 3 percent and others.

Phần 2: Về mặt kinh tế vĩ mô, ngân hàng và dòng tiền

1. Tăng trưởng GDP 2010 > 7% gần như là tất yếu. Kết quả GDP 6 tháng đầu năm sẽ cho kết quả rất tích cực tạo thêm động lực cho CK.

2. Ngân hàng thế giới (WB) dự báo năm 2010 Cán cân thanh toán của Việt Nam sẽ đạt mức thặng dư 2,6 tỷ USD. Đây là 1 con số phải nói là quá tuyệt vời nếu biết rằng năm 2009 chúng ta thâm hụt 8,8 tỷ USD:

WB predicts $2.6b surplus in Vietnam balance of payments in 2010

Vietnam's overall balance of payments (BoP) is expected to have a surplus of $2.6 billion in 2010 versus a deficit of $8.8 billion in 2009, fuelling an expectation that the dollar exchange rate will be stable, state media reported, citing a World Bank economist.

An excess of $11.7 billion in the capital account will help Vietnam cover a shortfall of $9.1 billion in the current account this year, the Hanoi-based Chief Economist Martin Rama of the WB said.

Nearly $7.3 billion worth of foreign direct investments and another $1.5 billion of portfolio capitals will be disbursed in Vietnam this year, he said, attributing the shortfall to the soaring trade deficit and lower remittance inflow.
Martin Rama noted that local confidence in the dong has been improved, given the narrowing gap between official and free-market forex rates, calling on the State Bank of Vietnam to boost its dollar purchases to enrich the national forex reserves.
Boosting money supply could put pressure on the dong, leading to a further devaluation of the currency, he warned.

The WB economist, meanwhile, considered the high dong interest rates as the top concern for Vietnam at the moment as it may cause negative impacts on the recovery of the Vietnamese economy.


3. Chính Phủ khẳng định sẽ tiếp tục giảm lãi suất về mức huy động 10% và cho vay 12% để hỗ trợ tăng trưởng. Song song với đó là lạm phát tiếp tục được kiểm soát

4. Dòng vốn FDI và Dòng tiền các quỹ đang chảy tương đối mạnh vào Việt Nam: (tin từ Dow Jones - các bác chịu khó đọc Tiếng Anh nhé)

Mekong Capital Raising US$150 Million Vietnam-Focused Private-Equity Fund

Mekong Capital, a Ho Chi Minh City-based private- equity firm, said Tuesday it is raising a US$150 million Vietnam-focused fund, the firm's fourth, and expects its first closing at US$50 million in a few months.
At US$150 million, the Mekong Enterprise Fund III will be three times the size of its predecessor, the US$50 million Mekong Enterprise Fund II, launched in 2006.
After a very quiet 2009, investor interest in Vietnam appears to be picking up again. The fundraising environment remains sluggish, but investors are starting to visit Vietnam again, which is promising, Mekong's managing partner, Chris Freund, said Tuesday.
Earlier this month, Orix Corp. and Dream Incubator Inc. announced the launch of a US$54.8 million Vietnam-focused fund.
Private-equity investment into Vietnam remained fairly constant even during the financial crisis. According to Dealogic, private-equity firms invested US$83 million in Vietnam last year, compared with US$74 million in 2008. Large firms such as U.S.-based private-equity firm TPG Group and Danish firm BankInvest Group bought a minority stake in Vietnamese conglomerate Masan Group Corp. for a total of US$50 million in September. Last month, VinaCapital Group agreed to invest US$15 million in Vietnamese tile maker Prime Group.
So far this year, there have been five private-equity investments totalling US$27 million into Vietnam, the deal flow tracker said.
Mekong, established in 2001, is one of the first private-equity firms in Vietnam. The firm's investments include Masan Food Corp., smart card manufacturer MK Smart JSC, and Phu Nhuan Jewelry JSC.
The newest fund will continue the firm's focus on consumer oriented companies. Keeping up with the larger fund size, the average size of investments will be about US$10 million to US$15 million, up from the current US$5 million to US$10 million, Freund said. Mekong focuses on minority stakes and doesn't use leverage. (Dow Jones)

4. Thị trường vốn Việt Nam sẽ tiếp tục được bơm vốn từ NHNN:

Vietnam's banking market needs more capital pumping from SBV

Central Bank late last week requested commercial banks to cut down deposit rates to 10 percent and loan rates to 12 percent with a particular roadmap. But, the signs from bond coupon rates showed that the roadmap is facing difficulties.
From the loan rate of 15 percent per annum in April, banks pulled down to 13-14 percent pa while the deposit rates are common at 11.5 percent pa. Some banks stopped promotions [plus interest rates and cash] whereas others still were maintaining.


Duong Thu Huong, general Secretary of Vietnam Banks Association said that state commercial banks almost reached the finish of lending rate reducing race whereas joint stock banks are on the way with the loan rate of 13-13.5 percent pa closer to the limit of 12 percent pa (ruled by the government) applied on loans for agriculture, export companies, SMEs.

According to the roadmap, fist banks should focus on cutting down short term loan rates and then lowering lending rates for aforementioned subjects. Nearly reaching finish means that the finish time is not yet clear. Huong said, "Coupon rates of bonds are very high, how can banks slash deposit rates?"
Despite, the coupon rate of two-year bonds were won at 12 percent per annum that fell to 11.3 percent pa in April and 11.05 percent pa last week, but this is still the high rate against the deposit rate band of banks.

Trang Van Sanh, a banking specialist, said that G-bonds contain low risks so the coupon rates usually are equal to 60 percent or maximum 80-90 percent of deposit rates with the same term. This means that if waning to bring the deposit rates down to 10 percent as the government's directive, coupon rates of bonds must be at 9 percent pa only. Factually, the state cannot raise capital from G-bonds if the coupon rate is lower 11 percent pa at this time.

Ly Xuan Hai, general director of ACB said that with the current interest rate benchmark, ACB's capital mobilisation is not good because the majority of residents prefer depositing money in short terms. Capital mobilisation speed of banks has slowed down so many banks are forced to keep deposit rates at high.

Some banks also decide to issue debt tools with the interest rates higher than market levels to backup higher increases in deposit rates. Particularly, medium and small joint stock banks selected to issue short term bills of exchange, like Orient Commercial Bank (OCB) offering one-month bills at 11.45 percent pa, 3-6 month terms at 11.50 percent pa, TienPhongBank imposing the dong bills at 11.5 percent pa for all terms of one month to 364 days. Also Vietnam Tin Nghia Commercial JS Bank released two trillion dong of bills of exchange at 11.58-11.94 percent/year.

Meanwhile, big banks like Vietinbank plan to issue six trillion dong of two-year bonds with the coupon rate of 12.5 percent pa for the first year and floating rate for following year.

With such high deposit rates, banks will be hard to lower lending rates, Sanh commented. A bank can use maximum 80 percent of raised deposits for lending [the more loan provision the higher risks banks will face]. If deposit rate is 11.5 percent pa, the lending rate will be 14.375 percent pa.

HCM City Securities Co (HSC) last Thursday posted that many banks seemed to look for the ways to reduce ratio of outstanding loans on total deposits to below 80 percent before the end of this October under the government's request. The banks which cannot reach the ratio will not be allowed to open new more branches or expand credit.

HSC proposed that SBV should have to pump more money into the banking system via Open Market Operations (OMOs) if the state agency wants to see a lower interest rate band. From June 4 to 11, SBV released total 39.656 trillion dong into the market.

PS: Tạm tổng hợp như vậy đã, sẽ cập nhật tiếp tục cho các bác. Tin về WB và HSBC thật quá tốt các bác chú ý nhé!
Bác nào có thời gian thì cùng đánh giá, cặp nhật và chia sẻ nhé
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