Khẩn cấp: theo Goldman Sachs chứng khoán Việt Nam vẫn rẻ nhất Châu Á (tin cập nhật ngày 06/12/2010 t

Khẩn cấp: theo Goldman Sachs và Reuters, chứng khoán Việt Nam vẫn rẻ nhất Châu Á (tin cập nhật ngày 06/12/2010 từ Bloomberg)

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ae61zCGWPXV4

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s stock market may rally 25 percent next year from the current level as the economy rebounds “strongly” in the first half, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The Kospi Index, the second-best performer among the world’s 15 biggest markets this year, may climb to 2,450 in 2011, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Goohoon Kwon wrote in a note today, favoring technology companies, automakers, brokerages and banks. The gauge fell 0.2 percent to 1,953.22 as of 10:49 a.m. in Seoul, trimming this year’s gain to 16 percent.

“We forecast exports will benefit from sustained recovery and ample liquidity in developed markets and robust growth in emerging markets,” the analysts said. Domestic demand is also likely to be helped by wage growth and improvement in household balance sheets, they wrote.

Manufacturing in some of the world’s largest economies grew in November, a sign that the global recovery is gaining traction as the year draws to a close. Output in the U.S. expanded for a 16th straight month, U.K. manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest in 16 years, and China’s output grew at a faster pace for a fourth month.

The Kospi’s 767 stocks trade at an average 11.09 times estimated earnings, the lowest in Asia after Pakistan and Vietnam. The benchmark index rose to a three-year high on Nov. 10 as a continued recovery in the nation’s economy and speculation that the won will strengthen drew overseas investors.

South Korea’s gross domestic product increased 0.7 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, when it gained 1.4 percent, the Bank of Korea said last week.

Fund Inflows

There may be more foreign fund inflows, while domestic fund flows will probably be favorable to equities as well because of low real interest rates and growing pension savings, the Goldman analysts said.

Foreigners have bought a net 18.7 trillion won ($16.5 billion) of Kospi equities so far this year, compared with 32.4 trillion won for the whole of last year, according to Koscom Corp., which provides financial data from Korea Exchange Inc.

Goldman Sachs is more bullish than Credit Suisse Group AG in predicting gains for South Korean shares. The benchmark stock gauge may climb to 2,300 next year as global economic growth and cheap valuations boost demand for the nation’s equities, Seok Yun, Seoul-based head of research at Credit Suisse and the top- ranked analyst for South Korean stocks in the 2010 Institutional Investor poll, said last week.

Brokerages from Deutsche Bank AG to Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also forecast gains for South Korean equities. The Kospi may reach 2,200 by June 2011, Deutsche Bank’s Chanik Park said last month, while Citigroup analysts led by Michael Chung predict the measure will rise to between 2,200 and 2,300 in the first half of next year. JPMorgan said on Nov. 17 the Kospi may reach 2,300 at the end of 2011.

To contact the reporters on this story: Saeromi Shin in Seoul at [email protected] Shiyin Chen at [email protected]