Khoai tây thuê HSBC làm giá! Anh chị em bình tĩnh.

Khoai tây thuê HSBC làm giá! Anh chị em bình tĩnh.


Vietnam Monitor
(Issue 2)
8 June 2007
Equity strategy
* Even after its recent roller-coaster ride, the Vietnamese market looks expensive on 25x this year?Ts earnings
* We would not be aggressive buyers at this level, but would wait to buy the big IPOs due over the next six months
* Foreign investors should be aware of the new registration system that will start in August or September


On hold for the IPO rush

What has happened
Vietnamese equities have had a volatile ride of late. The Vietnam index is up 38% y-t-d in USD terms. But, as shown in Chart 10, the market corrected 23% between March 12 and April 24, reaching a low of 906. It subsequently rebounded
23% to May 23, and has since shown some signs
of a further correction.
What happened is that foreign investors have
taken a realistic view about valuation, buying
between 900 and 1,000 and trimming positions
when the index rose much above that level. Most
overseas Vietnam country funds are sitting on
significant amounts of cash that they expect to use
in the privatisation IPOs due in the next six
months (see below for more on this); they are not
in a hurry to put the money to work when they see
the market looking too expensive. Domestic retail
investors have largely followed the foreigners?T
lead.
Table 2: Key stock market data
HCM Hanoi Total
Market cap (USDm) 15,188 4,566 19,754
Number of stocks 110 87 197
Foreign ownership 27% 14% 24%
PE (2006) x 33.6 46.6 36.6
PB (2006) x 7.9 6.5 7.5
ROE 24.2% 14.8% 21.4%
DY 0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
Source: Bloomberg, HCM STC, SSI,
At the current index level (1040), the PE for Ho
Chi Minh listed stocks based on 2006 earnings is
34x. Assuming 25% EPS growth this year (the
consensus among Vietnam-based fund managers)
and 15% next (roughly the rate of nominal GDP
growth), this equates to a PE of 25x 2007 earnings
and 21x 2008. We remain comfortable with our
target for the VN Index of 900 by end-2007,
based on 18x forward earnings at that time.
We would, therefore, not be aggressive buyers at
the current level ?" even though the fundamental
long-term story for Vietnam is very much intact.
We see the index largely moving sideways, albeit
in a wide range, over the next few months. At the
right price, the IPO offerings would be of interest.
Turnover and liquidity
The rally in the market in the past month has
taken daily trading value on the Ho Chi Minh
market back since the start of May to an average
of USD44m a day, although this is still well
below the heady levels of March...
Over the past three months, 11 stocks have had an
average daily turnover of USD1m or more,
making them liquid enough for many foreign
investors (see Table 5, for key data on the largest
stocks).
Foreign investor buying has picked up since late
February/early March, when foreigners were
small net sellers for about three weeks. In May,
foreigners bought net USD150m, close to the
level of December-February (Chart 12).
One problem for foreign investors is that many of
the best-quality names have hit their foreign
ownership limits (49% for listed companies, 30%
for banks and OTC stocks). Of the 15 largest
stocks by market cap, five can no longer be
bought by foreigners (see Table 5 for details).
IPO timetable
Many overseas country funds are saving cash to
buy a skew of privatisation issues due over the
next few months.
The first major privatisation this year, for Bao Viet
Insurance, was completed successfully on June 4,
raising USD271m, with 23% of the offering going to
foreign investors. The realised price was twice the
initial reserve price. The timetable of major IPOs
for the rest of the year is shown in Table 3. A
number of these will have overseas tranches for the
first time, and foreign investment banks are widely
expected to be appointed as lead managers on the issues.
Table 3: Major IPO timetable
Company Possible IPO date
Vietcombank Aug-07
Industrial & Commercial Bank Oct-07
Mekong Housing Bank Oct-07
Mobifone Q4
BIDV Q4
Saigon Beer ?
Hanoi Beer ?
Vinafone ?
Country funds
There continue to be a significant number of new
Vietnam country funds set up worldwide. We count 13
funds launched since the start of April this year,
and 22 since the beginning of the year (giving a
total of 52 in existence). Not all the funds report
their NAV but, for those that do, total assets now
equal USD6bn. Given total foreign ownership of
listed companies on the two exchanges of only
USD4.8bn, this suggests that a lot of the money
raised is still held in cash (although some, of
course, is invested in OTC stocks or other assets such as real estate).




Bọn Khoai tây thuê HSBC làm giá xuống 900 để nó gom ấy mà, bà con ta phải hết sức bình tĩnh. Cái bọn này đánh giá không đúng đâu. tinhd chỉ số PE còn sai nữa là. Bà con đừng có tin.
Mình fải tự quyết định lấy số pạnn của mình chứ. Chúc bà con thành công.