Mở bát 9-13/5, HNX bùng nổ,.. dẫn dắt VNIndex

xả aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Ngồi buồn lục lại bài viết của gần 2 năm về trước, tình cờ thấy bài viết của mình đã gửi cho Hoà trong mục " Trò chơi của cá lớn bên diễn đàn sàn OTC " ở thời điểm đen tối nhất trong giai đoạn dowtrend kéo dài ( ngày 13/12/2009 ). Cá nhân mình vẫn khẳng định trong bài viết về 1 viễn cảnh rất gần của TTCKVN - Đúng như nhận định của mình, chỉ sau bài viết đúng 4 ngày ( ngày 17/12/2009 ) , VNI bùng nổ vỡ oà trước bao sự ngỡ ngàng của nhà đầu tư.

Tin rằng lần này linh cảm cũng không ngoại lệ, cái ngày ấy rất gần, thậm chí đã nghe được tiếng sóng vỗ kề bên rồi.

Gửi lại cho Hoà bài viết cũ của mình cách nay gần 2 năm để làm kỷ niệm nhé.[r32)]

Được trích từ bài được gửi bởi: daonguyenhoa
Dear client,

Selling pressure was apparent from the start, although the VN-Index made an early unsuccessful attempt to recover ground. The VN-Index closed some 16 points lower at 499 on US$ 109 m turnover, while Hanoi shed more than 5% at 160 on US$ 38 m traded. No specific news to cause today’s selling pressure, perhaps just an indication that prices had ran up too fast too soon. 2009 Budget deficit expected to come in at US 7.6 b, declining only marginally to US$ 6.5 b next year.

Banks were leading again today, but their lead turned the other way today with most of them losing significant ground (except EIB and CTG). Among the larger caps on VIC and PGD managed to post nice gains, while it was a bleak day almost everywhere else. Market breadth also turned around abruptly with only 12 gainers on HOSE and appr. double that number on HNX. Looks like PGD was indeed a bit too cheap below its reference price (VND 56K). It is said that there is still roughly US$ 1 b in margin loans outstanding. And then there’s the big unknown of subsidized loans repayments. Both factors could keep pressure on prices over the coming weeks.

A couple of the top-5 brokers have reversed course over the pas days, but for the moment I am happy that we did not change our short term opinion on the market. Technically both indexes look like a nightmare today with a massive ‘bearish engulfing pattern’ in HNX and closing levels (VN-I and HNX-I) below the closing levels on Monday (ouch!). The RSI (for both indexes) was not able to break the downtrend, so it looks like the bearish short term scenario is in play again (sell on strength). Other technical indicators all point in the same direction, so I would be extremely cautious. For the moment the 380 – 430 zone remains within the realm of possibilities and the 9-month time cycle (Dec 20 +/- 3 weeks) could prove to be pretty accurate (again).


@ DaonguyenHoa :

If it is just the quote from someone else's words, it's fine. But if it is your words, I would highly recommend you take it in Vietnamese. Your comment in this forum may cause difficulties for most the members (for some reasons). I dont know why you did that and if it is just for "polishing yourself", please stop it.


First I really appreciate your comment but I still wondering why you behaved in such pessimisic way. Being cautious is good but you should consider what is the distance (of time) now. What you said is about the past (just for reference) and have you ever thought it may affect negatively the future trends in the market. The chances may be gone.

For the last few days, banks' stocks are the one rescue the market and they will maintain their functions for the next few week in order for the market "escape" form the downtrend

Again, a saying (which is old but still useful): " Being greedy when others are scary". For our market, technical analysis is just for reference and the one holding higher "economics potential" (or simply more cash) will be the game controller.

Hope you guys be more wise when making decision and good luck to all.

Tks bác rất nhiều[r2)]

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