Sốc! VNI mô hình Rồng (Dragon Pattern) thật rùi!

Hôm truoc đọc bài của bác STockpro "Ngự thế Thăng Long", cứ nghi là đầu óc bác này phong phú, tưởng tuong ra duoc cả mô hình lân rồng trong đồ thị.

Nhưng mới đọc 1 tài liệu, thì đúng là có Mô hình rồng thật! Dragon Pattern, mời các bác tham khảo nha!


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Dragons
in the Markets


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS



Pattern recognition is an excellent way to identify
recurring price behaviors. Suri Duddella provides a
look at the ‘Dragon’ pattern with rules to trade it

SURI[FONT=639b30309d4e333603776570#e40300]DUDDELLA[/FONT]
26
NOVEMBER 2007 / VOL. 3 ISSUE 11













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Fig. 1A and Fig. 1B shows Dragon Examples
‘

Pattern Recognition’ in Technical Analysis is defined as a process
where we recognize recurring events identifying certain predictive patterns of price behavior. These patterns are clear derivatives of human behavior manifested in the markets. Although patterns
very rarely repeat exactly at the same trading levels or the same dimensions, there exist patterns that repeat with similar
shapes and similar sequences. Identifying these patterns and trading them with a set of rules adds to a trader’s success. Successful pattern recognition and execution must consist of a framework and a rule based trading methodology. In this article,
I would like to describe one of my favorite patterns in trading called ‘Dragon’ with a pattern recognition framework and its trading rules.
Dragon Framework

The Dragon pattern is similar to the ‘W’pattern or the ‘Double Bottom’ pattern with a few different trading rules and targets. Inverse Dragon patterns are similar to ‘M’ pattern. Dragon patterns usually form at market bottoms. Dragon patterns work in all timeframes and in all market instruments. Like most ‘Double Bottom’ patterns, Dragon patterns present excellent trading opportunities with low risk to reward ratios.

The Dragon pattern starts with a ‘Head’ formation and price declines from the head level to form two legs of the Dragon.
These two legs usually form within 5% to 10% of the price difference. The second leg has a strong indication of reversal as it
posts a key reversal bar or a divergence in any oscillator indicators. A spike in volume usually follows the price rise of the
second leg. A trend line is drawn connecting the head of the Dragon to the hump.

When price closes above the trend line and is confirmed by price action or divergence in any oscillator, it signals a reversal.
The second confirmation of the Dragon pattern occurs when the price closes above the hump, which is 38% to 50% of the range or the Swing High/Low between the two Dragon legs (or peaks
for Inverse Dragon) from head to the low of the first leg.
Trading Dragon Pattern:

The left example shows a Dragon pattern formation from the Dow E-mini futures 30-minute chart. On January 3, 2007, Dow futures formed the head of the Dragon. Prices declined until January 8th in
the formation of the first leg. On January 8th, prices tried to recover as they rallied to 12520. A trendline is drawn connecting the top of the head and top of the first leg. On January 10th, the second leg was
formed as price retraced from the hump area to 12420. A confirmation of the Dragon formation is signaled when prices closed above the trend line at 12500.

1. Enter a long trade at 12,520 on the close
above the high of the breakout bar.
2. Target the first swing high prior to
leg (1) at 12,570 and ‘head’ area at
12,640.
3. Place a stop order below the lowest low Anatomy of a Dragon Pattern:

A. Head of the Dragon
B. Formation of first leg
C. Hump (must be 0.38 to 0.5 of AB)
D. Second leg (can be 0.618 to 1.27 of
AB)
E. Trend line breakout (Long Trigger)
F. First target at 1.27 of CD
G. Second target at 0.886 to 1.0 of BC
H. Third target at 1.38 of AB
I. STOP: Place a stop few tick below
the lowest low of two legs.

of the two legs at 12,410.