Tin khủng: Cán cân thanh toán (BOP) của Việt Nam 2011 dự đoán sẽ thặng dư 1 tỷ USD (theo bác Lê Xuân

- Năm 2009: thâm hụt 8,8 tỷ USD (theo IMF: http://dddn.com.vn/2010030409561239...g-mai-va-can-can-thanh-toan--bai-toan-kho.htm)
- Năm 2010, thâm hụt 4 tỷ USD (theo Chính Phủ: http://cafef.vn/2010123106520495CA33/tham-hut-can-can-thanh-toan-nam-2010-khoang-4-ty-usd.chn).

Nhưng năm 2011, bác Lê Xuân Nghĩa dự báo thặng dư 1 tỷ USD, và khẳng định dự báo này chắc chắn chính xác! [r2)]

June 26, 2011

Balance of payments set for small surplus in 2011

http://www.vietfinancenews.com/2011/06/balance-of-payments-set-for-small.html

VietFinanceNews.com - Vietnam's balance of payment will likely run a surplus of $1 billion in 2011, said Le Xuan Nghia, vice Chair of Vietnam National Financial Supervisory Commission, noting that the forecast would be probably precise.
This year, the gap between domestic and global prices have been narrowed to almost flat, discouraging illegal gold importing, Nghia said.
Earlier, Vietnam's forex reserves lost $9 billion in 2009 and $3 billion in 2010, mostly caused by high forecasting error due to illegal gold importing with huge volume, he added.
The economist expected that balance of payment surplus will help ease balance of payment pressures on dollar exchange rates, yet concerning that trade deficit is widening due to a decline in overseas remittance and hardly increase in foreign capital inflows.
Nghia also warned that Vietnam should stay alert as current supply for dollars is mounting (but actually not) as enterprises have sold dollars for the dong, however demand for dollars to repay loans would surge at the end of the year peak season.