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http://www.4shared.com/file/242914250/2385841/Indexes_March_17.html

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VN Index Part 1 – Commentary – It was a gravestone candle stick and the big sell off kicked off yesterday. Will it continue?

A review of key world markets

The Dow started the year of the tiger at 10,100. Currently at 2:30 p.m. Tuesday, pre trade Tuesdayfutures are at 10,582. This is a slight positive for the VNI.
DJI is in a secondary bull from being oversold according to the MACD histogram.

At the current time

DJI > 10,500 is positive for VNI
DJI 21,000 is positive for VNI
HIS< 20,000 is negative for VNI

In between 20,000 and 21,000 it will oscillate from slightly positive to slightly negative.

The primary indicators are over bought with RSI close to the 80% line and Slow STO at the 90% line.

Should the DJI set a sell signal, this likely would cause the HSI to develop a sell signal as well.




In both of these key markets we must ask the question “Is this current bullish trend an impulse wave or a corrective wave?” Only in the future will we know for sure. If it is an impulse wave we would need to see a new high in each market. If it is a corrective wave, we would need to see support tested and penetrated in each market. These markets are interesting (technically) and they are at what appears to be a decision point.

The VNI

Today at the open

World markets provide a slight negative background for the VNI open today. In addition, our 3 supporting indicators are predicting a sell signal and one of two primary indicators are signaling sell with the other on the edge of a sell signal. Technically, the VNI still looks good (as the price is above the 20 EMA). Yesterday’s collapse will put pressure on the downside at the open. The 4 day rule now supports a negative open. All put together, this suggests a negative at the open, likely near support at 512.

Yesterday’s action and current secondary trend

The VNI closed down 16, at 516 on 67 million shares traded. This was definitely a blow to the secondary bullish trend; however it is still in good shape as we can see by the rising 20 EMA. Today’s action will determine the near future; if we see a negative close, we will likely have a system sell signal. If we see a positive close, we can then expect sub wave 3 to continue to the 550 area. Support is strong from 513 to 490 and we expect this to hold.





The long term indicators remain bullish. The current secondary bull is 32 days old with 3 mini counter trends and is in danger of coming to an end. We need to observe the price action over the next two days to know for sure.


The long term indicators are bullish and the short term indicators are suggesting a changed in trend could happen today.

VN Index, part 2 – Risk in a bull market

For funds and institutions, risk points should be somewhere between 430 and the 200 EMA (currently at 490).

For traders, that price point should somewhere just below the 20 EMA (currently at 513). For example, at the current time traders can expect any decline to stop at or above 513.



VN Index, part 3 – Reward in a bull market

Our model suggests the reward for 2010 is a potential double. The realistic scenario is now most likely. The reward for top strategies will be higher.




The box highlights wave 1 of fractal wave 3

Currently we see the VNI in sub-wave 3 of wave 1 in Fractal wave 3. A logical point for sub wave 3 to end would be at 540-560. A short and shallow sub-wave 4 would follow. Following the brief pull back, sub-wave 5 should carry the price to the 600-625 area. Price did hit 438 two days ago, which is sufficiently close to 540-560. Should that turn out to be the end of sub wave, we will likely down grade our wave 1 estimate to 592.




VN Index, part 4 – Relative Performance

Performance as of 3-16-10 sorted by 2010 (10 day)

In 10 day performance, note that 13 strategies, 3 cap groups and the SBSC model portfolio are above the index mean. This indicates that the average gain of all stocks is once again greater than the weighted average gain.




In YTD performance, we can see clearly that small cap is the leader and extending its lead. Also note that mid cap is also extending its lead over the index mean (as expected).
Small Cap is running 224% better than the index mean YTD
Mid Cap is running 82% better than the index mean YTD
Large Cap is running 24% worse than the index mean YTD

This indicates that the average gain of all stocks is once again greater than the weighted average gain. This is close to what we forecasted.

Forecasted relationship to the mean (adjusted monthly)

Large Mid Small

11.49%​

81.32%​

73.43%​

Industry / Sector Classification

Banking industry (all, 6/6 are bears) – Still bearish as of 2-25-10 (Possible recovery 3Q10)
Insurance industry (3/4 are bears) – Still bearish as of 3-1-10 (Possible recovery 2Q10)
Utilities sector – The electricity group is bearish as of 3-4-10 and the gas and water group is borderline status as of 3-4-10. (Possible recovery 2Q10)

Top performing strategies with stocks for consideration are:

Oil and Gas (PVC, PLC, PVD, PVS, SFC)
Mining Mid and Small Cap (BKC, KSH, MCV, MIC, MMC, NBC, PNJ, TC6, THT, YBC)
Resources Industrial Metals (VIS, SMC, HLA, HSG, PHT and HPG)

Oversold strategies with stocks for consideration are:

Technology (FPT and ST8)
Resources Chemical (BMP, DPR, HAI, HRC, NTP, PHR, TRC, TTP)

VN Index, part 5 – Summary and Conclusion

Our technical analysis suggests that from the long term prospective, the current general market condition is that the risk reward ratio is favorable. In the short term prospective, the situation is now critical and a change in secondary trend could happen today.

Our bull market rules suggest that secondary bear trends (Risk) should find support at the 20 EMA, currently at 513 and not penetrate the 200 EMA, currently at 490 and secondary bull trends (Reward) will have a target of 614. These numbers could be adjusted on a negative close today

Our quantitative analysis shows small and mid cap leading.

In conclusion our research suggests individuals, traders, institutions, and funds should wait until the secondary trend is clearly established.

For traders, the next level for profit taking will be 600-625 on signal.