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Chiến lược lúc này: Vẫn vang lên tiếng Mua Thứ hai, 31/5/2010, 22:51 GMT+7 (ATPvietnam.com) -Chiến lược đầu tư mà các chuyên gia chứng khoán đưa ra lúc này vẫn vang lên tiếng Mua mạnh mẽ, dù cách mua có thể khác nhau.
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Second half of 2010: the stock market will turn up
Electronic securities investment - 06/01/2010 8:40:00 SA

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It was identified by Lawrence Wolfe, director of Business Development, East Asia Securities in the stock market seminar organized by the company last week.

Mr. Lawrence Wolfe said that the debt crisis of European direct impact on the economy and stock market of Vietnam is not significant. Clear that this claim, DTCK had an interview with Lawrence Wolfe conference on the sidelines.

In recent time, Vietnam's stock market suffer from the effects of changes in the global markets, which causes most important impact of information related to the debt crisis in Europe, namely Greece, Spain and Iceland. How do you assess the impact of this crisis to the economic and stock market in Vietnam?

Need immediate confirmation that the debt crisis in the euro common currency area (Eurozone) does not affect directly to Vietnam. According to statistics, the capital of foreign direct investment from Europe was about 13%, including from Greece, Spain and Iceland is only about 0.02% of the total foreign direct investment into Vietnam. The area has the largest capital investment in Vietnam is Asia and America.

Vietnam's exports to the three European countries on very modest, only about 1.79% of total exports. Meanwhile, estimated by HSBC, is forecast to EUR remains stronger against the dollar and the fact that capital flow from areas of Europe to Asia tended to increase rather than decrease. This means that the impact of public debt crisis of the above three countries to Vietnam is very modest. The biggest thing, I think, may be affected psychologically.

How do you assess the real situation the economy in Vietnam?

I appreciate Vietnam's economy in 2010 better than 2009 and much better than in 2008. The forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on economic growth worldwide has increased from 3.9% to 4.2%, while the latest forecast GDP growth of Vietnam is also at 6% to 7.2%. Meanwhile, the trade deficit is fairly stable in recent months, total trade deficit of about 4 months of $ 4.6 billion, mainly with imported goods and raw materials for export. I believe that the economic recovery in the world, Vietnam's exports in 2010 will increase by 10% compared with 2009.

Regarding exchange rates, in February, USD has depreciated 3.3% against the dollar. No reason to USD decreased further, unless the target stimulus for export. The increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in April and May at a very low level. CPI expectations in 2010, as reported by Barclays and Deutsche Bank, also at around 9%. With these factors, I think, without any reason from the domestic economy could impact stock market.

He added that Vietnam's stock market data have strong chances in the second half turned in 2010?

Statistics show that, first quarter of 2009, revenue growth targets per share (EPS) of the company reached a high level, whether it is at the bottom of problems. Therefore, increase the income of the enterprises in 2010 are quite optimistic forecasts.

Meanwhile, comparing changes in the VN-Index and HNX-Index over time with changes in the global markets, the past 14 months in general recovery of the stock market, Vietnam's stock market increased very slightly compared with other countries. But since the public debt crisis in Europe, Vietnam's stock market to decrease further back than common events. P / E average (based on 2009 income) is at 13.7 times P / E estimated for 2010 (as calculated by HSBC) is 11.4 times ..., that Vietnam's stock market are attractive and competitive rate than many stock market in the region and the world. I agree with his views, Mark Mobius (Templeton Foundation) that Vietnam is one of the cheapest stock market in the world.

Two factors, combined with the liquidity the banking system is on an improved growth of credit and interest rate increases cooling time is both a positive signal for the increased money supply into the market, from that helped rally the market (statistics in four years, the interest rate is inversely proportional relationship with the movement of the stock market). In addition, continuous movement of the block net buying of foreign investors also showed that demand is increasing, the ability to increase Vietnam's stock market future is entirely possible.

He once predicted, in 2010, VN-Index could hit 700-750 points. Given current stock market, how he thought about the possibility VN-Index hits on the threshold this year?

First year, we predicted the VN-Index could achieve 700 to 750 points in 2010, on the basis of assessment of fundamentals and technical analysis, Fibonacci Retracement wave theory. With the stock market lower as the past, we believe, will enable a strong stock market in the second quarter last year, but the ability to touch the lower threshold, ie the stock market may take more time to increase this level.

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ngày mai Thị trường tăng ,,, không nói nhiều ![]